The Second Annual Overstuffed Oscar Prediction/Fall Preview Post

The fall film festivals are kicking Into high gear and Oscar buzz is already generating around several movies. It’s time to check out this season’s class of Oscar potentials. To save time, space, and my sanity, I’m omitting some movies that have already come out this year. You can read about them in 2020 Oscar Contenders and The Best Movies of 2019 So Far. So without any further ado, let’s jump into this fall’s crop of movies.

Echo In the Canyon (available on digital)

This documentary celebrates the music that came from Laurel Canyon in the mid-60s from bands like The Byrds, The Beach Boys, Buffalo Springfield, and The Mamas and The Papas. The film features performance footage from the actual bands as well as new concert footage featuring Jakob Dylan and friends such as Fiona Apple and Beck covering the timeless tunes. It’s heartwarming to see one of Tom Petty’s final interviews as well. This is one of several rock documentaries that could make its way into the Best Documentary category.

Brittany Runs a Marathon (now playing)

Jillian Bell’s performance is a triumph. It’s impossible not to fall in love with her in the first few minutes. This original, feel-good comedy deserves some recognition. I’d love to see it cross the finish line with Best Actress and Best Original Screenplay nominations.

David Crosby: Remember My Name (now playing)

Even if you don’t know much about Crosby going in (guilty), Cameron Crowe’s critically acclaimed documentary is still fascinating. (I loved seeing the house that inspired favorite song “Our House.”). It is a tribute to Crosby but also a cautionary tale. It may score a Best Documentary nod.

Linda Ronstadt: The Sound of My Voice

This is another amazing rock doc with an amazing soundtrack. It’s quite a journey and one I highly recommend. This is a crowd-pleaser that leaves audiences in tears.

The Goldfinch (now playing)

This one is pretty much DOA after fizzling out at TIFF. The critical consensus is that the adaptation of Donna Tartt’s Pulitzer Prize winning novel is too emotionally muted. Which is a shame. I loved Ansel Elgort in Baby Driver and had been looking forward to his performance in this movie. And possibly some recognition from the Academy for his talents. But he’ll have to wait a while longer for his first Oscar nomination.

Hustlers (now playing)

The hype is that one of the five Best Actress slots already belongs to Jennifer Lopez. With a current Rotten Tomatoes score of 87%, maybe the hype is true.. So far, this appears to be one of the rare movies that’s popular with both critics and audiences.

IT Chapter Two (now playing)

Critics agree that Bill Hader is the best thing about this overlong sequel. I feel like he’s a dark horse candidate for Best Supporting Actor. Funny and surprisingly touching, he steals the show. A nomination would make up for being overlooked for The Skeleton Twins.

Official Secrets (now playing)

IFC Films bought this drama at Sundance. The movie stars Keira Knightley and Ralph Fiennes, and is based on British secret service officer/whistle blower Katherine Gunn, who tried to stop the 2003 invasion of Iraq. It seems to be getting lukewarm reviews unfortunately. This is disappointing after the academy ignored Knightley in Colette.

The Peanut Butter Falcon (now playing)

This comedy was one of my favorite surprises of the summer. Shia LaBeouf’s performance makes me so excited to see Honey Boy. The movie is about Zak, a 22-year-old with Down syndrome, who escapes from a nursing home and tries to make his way to a wrestling school in Florida. It’s one of the best movies you’ll see all year. Seek it out. I’d love to see this at least get a Best Original Screenplay nomination.

The Sound of Silence (now playing)

Sony Pictures Worldwide Acquisitions picked up the rights to this one ahead of Sundance. It’s about a “house tuner” in New York City who calibrates the sound in people’s homes to adjust their moods until he meets a client with a problem he can’t solve. It stars Peter Sarsgaard, Rashida Jones, and Austin Pendleton. Pendleton was so good in the only recently released 5-25-77 that I’ve been wanting to see more of him. This one is probably a dark horse but something about it speaks to me so I’m keeping it on my radar.

The Truth (now playing )

Director Hirokazu Kore-eda’s film Shoplifters was nominated for Best Foreign Film at this year’s Oscars. The Truth is his first English language film. It stars Juliette Binoche as a woman who returns to France after her mother (Catherine Deneuve) publishes a controversial autobiography. The film also stars Ethan Hawke.

Ad Astra (September 20)

This sounds like the best film Christopher Nolan never made. From the IMDB page: “Astronaut Roy McBride travels to the outer edges of the solar system to find his missing father and unravel a mystery that threatens the survival of our planet.” Director James Gray has the chops to do it too. He did an excellent job with the indie The Lost City of Z. This sic-fi flick stars Brad Pitt and Tommy Lee Jones. As if I wasn’t already sold. UPDATE: I stand corrected. While I personally had a cathartic moment while watching the film, it’s ultimately earned its nickname “Sad Astra.” Pitt is more likely to earn an Oscar nom for Once Upon a Time in…Hollywood.

Downton Abbey (September 20)

The beloved BBC show gets the big screen treatment in one last hurrah. With Oscar winning writer Julian Fellowes attached, this has Oscar potential even if it is tied to a TV series and is not a stand-alone film.

Judy (September 27)

Renée Zellweger received standing ovations at Telluride and TIFF for her performance as Judy Garland toward the end of her life. The movie may not get a Best Picture nod but Zellweger is a lock for a Best Actress nomination.

The Current War (October 4)

This long-delayed drama will finally see the light of day. Thomas Edison (Benedict Cumberbatch) and George Westinghouse (Michael Shannon) battle to see whose electrical system will power the world. It has a low Rotten Tomatoes rating from those who’ve seen it but you can’t put two powerhouse actors in a movie together without generating some Oscar buzz.

Joker (October 4)

Joker won the Gold Lion at the Venice International Film Festival. It generated a lot of buzz at TIFF. It’s also causing a lot of controversy. (Will this inspire copycat violence? Should we be celebrating a villain when there’s so much violence going on in our country? Will people identify with this character in a dangerous way?) It’s quickly becoming one of the most interesting movies of the year and inspiring plenty of dialogue. Joaquin Phoenix may become the second actor to be nominated for playing the Joker on screen.

Lucy in the Sky (Oct ober4)

Natalie Portman stars in this movie about an astronaut who starts to unravel and lose touch with reality after returning to Earth from a mission. Director Noah Hawley is known for television work, for writing, directing, and producing episodes of Fargo, Legion, and Bones. As I’ve said before, movies where the main character may be losing their mind freak me out. But I am a Portman fan. So I’ll be in line to see this but torn about it. This could land her her fourth Oscar nomination. UPDATE: This movie fizzled at the Toronto International Film Festival and is no longer in the Oscar race.

Pain and Glory (October 4)

Pedro Almodóvar’s newest film may be his most personal yet. The semi-autobiographical film could land Antonio Banderas his first Oscar nomination. The movie has already been chosen as Spain’s submission for Best Foreign Film.

Parasite (October 11)

Some people loved Snowpiercer. It made me feel uneasy and it freaked my girlfriend out. Joon-ho Bong’s newest one isn’t going to let me off the hook either. His darkly comic meditation on class is also supposed to have creepy undertones. It won the Palme d’Or this year. Look for it to get a Best Foreign Film nomination if not Best Picture.

Jojo Rabbit (October 18) (wide release Nov 1)

This one divided critics at TIFF and I’ll probably be one of the people in the audience laughing less and checking their watch more. Which is disappointing because I love Taika Waititi’s films. But I’ve pretty much been out from the premise of a boy whose imaginary friend is Hitler. And the first teaser trailer didn’t do much to allay my concerns. Maybe Scarlett Johansson’s performance can save the film? We’ll see.

The Lighthouse (October 18) (wide release Nov 1)

Am I going to include a Willem Dafoe picture every year? Why yes, yes I am. Until he wins his damn Oscar. This year’s film is The Lighthouse. He and Robert Pattinson slowly go mad in isolation. Despite my earlier comments about main characters losing their minds, I can’t wait for this one.

Dolemite Is My Name (streaming October 25)

Eddie Murphy’s comeback begins with this biopic from Netflix. It was a huge crowdpleaser in Toronto. He will probably be part of the Best Actor conversation this year.

The Last Full Measure (October 25)

Here is what I know about this movie: nothing. But the plot and cast scream Oscar bait. From the IMDB page: “Thirty-four years after his death, Airman William H. Pitsenbarger, Jr. ("Pits") is awarded the nation's highest military honor, for his actions on the battlefield.” The cast includes Samuel L. Jackson, Bradley Whitford, Sebastian Stan, Ed Harris, Christopher Plummer, Peter Fonda (RIP), and William Hurt.

Harriet (November 1)

The critics all agree that Cynthia Erivo gives a great performance as Harriet Tubman. The movie itself seems to be more bland. Erivo could snag a Best Actress nomination.

The King (November 1)

This adaptation of Henry V features an all-star cast including Ben Mendelsohn, Timothée Chalamet, Robert Pattinson, Joel Edgerton, Lily-Rose Depp, and Thomasin McKenzie. This is one of Netflix’s entries into the Oscar race this year.

Motherless Brooklyn (November 1)

Edward Norton directs and stars in this 1950s noir about a detective with Tourette’s Syndrome out to solve the murder of his friend. This movie received mixed reviews at Telluride. I’m a huge Ed Norton fan though and I love detective movies so I can’t wait for this.

Waves (November 1)

This movie from A24 was the sleeper hit of Telluride. It deals with the disintegration of a family. With all the hype it’s getting, I kind of want to go in cold, knowing as little as possible about this one.

Doctor Sleep (November 8)

This movie is a sequel to The Shining and is based on Stephen King’s 2013 novel. Yes, it’s a horror film and Oscar doesn’t have the best history with horror. But there’s something about the ambition it takes to make a sequel to The Shining after all these years that I can’t ignore. Plus, it stars Ewan McGregor, one of my favorites. Maybe he’ll finally get an Oscar nomination. Or maybe it will just be a really good horror flick.

Honey Boy (November 8)

Shia LaBeouf wrote this movie about his childhood and plays his own father. He channelled his own demons into creating this. I can’t wait to see it, especially after he did such great work in The Peanut Butter Falcon. He’s having such an amazing year. Hopefully the Academy will take notice.

Midway (November 8)

This year’s obligatory war film is about the Battle of Midway. It stars Luke Evans, Patrick Wilson, Mandy Moore, Dennis Quaid, Woody Harrelson, and Aaron Eckhart. Wilson looks good in the preview.

Ford v Ferrari (November 15)

Christian Bale is getting strong reviews for his performance as a race car driver who helped Ford develop a new race car for the 24 Hours of Le Mans in 1966.

The Good Liar (November 15)

A career con artist sets his sights on a widow. Ian McKellen and Helen Mirren star in this romantic drama. Both actors continue to be at the top of their game. I wouldn’t count either one out of the running.

The Report (November 15)

Adam Driver stars as a Senate staffer leading an investigation into the CIA’s post 9/11 interrogation tactics. Annette Bening co-stars as Senator Dianne Feinstein. Both are getting good reviews and could get nominations. This could be a major awards contender for Amazon. Driver may stand a better chance at being nominated for the popular and more emotional Marriage Story however.

A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood (November 22)

Tom Hanks as Mister Rogers? This one was a home run the moment it was announced. This might finally be the film that scores Hanks another Oscar nomination. (In my opinion, he deserved them for Captain Phillips, Sully, and Bridge of Spies.). Director Marielle Heller may get her first directing nomination after being overlooked for The Diary of a Teenage Girl and Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Dark Waters (November 22)

Mark Ruffalo and Anne Hathaway star in this psychological thriller from director Todd Haynes. I was a huge fan of the movie Carol so I’m curious to see what Haynes does with this material. I actually got to watch them film part of a scene in Cincinnati. (I didn’t get to see any celebrities.). Watching the extras move like clockwork was cool. The trailer is gripping. I’ve kind of been rooting for Ruffalo to pick up an Oscar since Foxcatcher. Maybe this is the one.

Frozen 2 (November 22)

With any luck, Anna and Elsa’s new adventure will be as magical as their first one. And the songs will be just as catchy. And there’d better be plenty of Olaf or I’ll have one unhappy girlfriend on my hands. This is probably going to get a Best Animated Picture nomination.

The Irishman (November 27)

Netflix took a big gamble on Scorsese’s long-delayed, most expensive film yet. Hopefully it will pay off. The cast is impressive. Robert De Niro and Al Pacino together for the first time since Heat, Harvey Keitel, Joe Pesci, Anna Paquin, Jesse Plemons, Bobby Canavale, and Ray Romano. Definitely one to catch on the big screen.

Knives Out (November 27)

Rian Johnson’s whodunnit garnered great reviews at TIFF. He’s already talking about a potential sequel(s) featuring Daniel Craig’s detective. Even though Kenneth Branagh’s adaptation of Murder on the Orient Express failed to garner any Oscar love, Johnson’s mystery film may sway Academy voters.

Queen and Slim (November 27)

I knew this movie would be part of the awards conversation when I read a description of it months ago, long before the trailer dropped. A first date becomes a cross country car chase when two lovers shoot a cop in self-defense during a traffic stop. Police violence is a relevant topic right now. It’s nice to see Daniel Kaluuya’s career keeps progressing. I’m glad to see him playing a good guy again though. This movie will probably get the attention that The Hate U Give deserved. Yeah, I’m still mad.

Marriage Story (December 6)

I sort of hate December sometimes. I hate waiting for my favorite movies to come out. I love Noah Baumbach. I love Adam Driver. I love Scarlett Johansson. And they made a movie together! This drama about a couple getting a divorce and fighting over custody of their child got amazing reviews out of Telluride. Driver just looks heartbreaking at the end of the preview. This one may be really emotional but I’m still excited for it.

Uncut Gems (December 13)

I probably haven’t been this excited for an Adam Sandler movie since Punch Drunk Love. (Maybe he should only make movies that are three syllables long?). He’s getting some career best reviews for his performance. The movie is not supposed to be as good.

A Hidden Life (December 13)

This looks to be Terrence Malick’s comeback film. (Hey, I liked Song to Song!). A conscientious objector refuses to fight for the Nazis during World War II. The preview alone looks visually breathtaking.

Richard Jewell (December 13)

Clint Eastwood’s late entry into the Oscar race is definitely a spoiler. The trailer only dropped recently. This one definitely has the potential to steal some nominations out from under other expectant films.

Seberg (December 13)

Kristen Stewart plays actress Jean Seberg who got involved with the Black Panthers. The movie is receiving fair reviews. But you know I can’t count K-Stew out during awards season.

Star Wars IX: The Rise of Skywalker (December 20)

Consider this the Return of the King of the Star Wars movies. This is the Academy’s last chance to truly honor the series. Yes, there will be more Star Wars films. But not with these actors and characters. So if the Academy wants to do more than throw a few technical nominations their way, this is the year to do so.

Bombshell (previously Fair and Balanced) (December 20)

What hath Adam McKay wrought? First Vice, now Jay Roach is taking on Fox News with this picture. Perhaps Christian Bale’s proposed Mitch McConnell movie actually is next. Margot Robbie stars as a fictional Fox producer, Charlize Theron plays Megyn Kelly, Nicole Kidman plays Getchen Carlson, John Lithgow plays Roger Ailes, and Malcolm McDowell plays Rupert Murdoch. If the movie is anything like Vice, it could be an awards juggernaut.

1917 (December 25)

This year’s other obligatory war film. At least it’s directed by Sam Mendes. Also, it’s made to look like one uncut tracking shot. From the IMDB page: “Two young British soldiers during the First World War, are given an impossible mission: deliver a message, deep in enemy territory, that will stop their own men, and Blake's own brother, from walking straight into a deadly trap.” It stars Benedict Cumberbatch and Richard Madden.

Just Mercy (December 25)

Civil rights defense attorney Bryan Stevenson fights to free a prisoner on death row. Micheal B. Jordan may finally get an Oscar nomination for his performance. The Washington Post has speculated this movie could be the next Green Book.

Little Women (Dec 25)

Yes, there was a TV miniseries in 2017 and a modern day adaptation in 2018. But this is the first major Hollywood adaptation with an A-list cast since 1994. Director Greta Gerwig’s cast includes Florence Pugh, Emma Watson, Saoirse Ronan, Meryl Streep, Timothée Chalamet, Laura Dern, Bob Odenkirk, Chris Cooper, and Tracy Letts. This is Gerwig’s first film since Ladybird.

Clemency (Dec 27)

This movie won the U.S. Dramatic Grand Jury Prize at Sundance this year. Alfre Woodard plays a death row prison warden who starts to have second thoughts about her occupation. I’ve been waiting for this one all year. I’m glad it finally has a release date.

Unknown/Spoilers

The following films do not have release dates yet. Some of them may be late entries into the race.

By the Grace of God (unspecified)

This won the Silver Berlin Bear at the Berlin International Film Festival. Based on an ongoing scandal, the movie tells the story of three adult men who band together to expose the code of silence that continues to enable a priest who abused them as boys. It’s this year’s Spotlight. The trailer alone is powerful. Look for it in the Best Foreign Film category. Could it pull off a Best Picture nom as well?

Greed (US release unspecified) premiered at TIFF

According to Wikipedia, Greed is a satire on wealth, centered around a billionaire high-street fashion mogul’s 60th birthday on the Greek island Mykonos. When you put actor Steve Coogan and and director Michael Winterbottom together, good stuff happens. (See 24 Hour Party People.). This one’s a dark horse, but still one to watch.

My Zoe

Julie Delpy wrote, directed, and stars in this movie about a single mother raising her daughter. When this triple threat from the Before Trilogy is involved with a project, it’s worth taking note.

Once Were Brothers: Robbie Robertson and the Band

This rock doc opened the Toronto International Film Festival this year. One more entry in what has been an amazing year for rock and roll documentaries.

There you have it. Excluding any last minute entries, these are the final contenders for the 2020 Oscars. Exciting, isn’t it? We now have an Oscar race and it’s pretty wide open. We’ll see which films’ fortunes rise and fall as the weeks go by. Remember to sign up for the newsletter and like the Facebook page to stay up to date on everything.